Beggar thy Neighbour

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/15/china-growth-slow-trade-war-bank-of-england-50-note-business-live

I'm not even going to go into Trump's deliberate insulting of his female professional colleagues in the most public and racist way. The man showed long ago that he lacks any sense of human decency or empathy and this most recent crassness fits the bill.

Instead, how short term must Trump's thinking be if he counts a Chinese slowdown as some sort of victory. The global economy is, get this, interconnected and a problem for one large economy is likely to rapidly become a problem for other countries.

This is even more true of the Sino-American relationship. Economists have long feared such a slowdown could trigger a global recession. The Chinese own a large amount of US debt and despite recent diversification are a primary manufacturer for the consumer goods that Americans enjoy on a massive scale.

Trade wars only 'work' if you draw your margin for victory so widely that it includes risking total economic collapse and great suffering for petty nationalist goals.

Distraction Tactics

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/trump-china-beijing-election-midterms-interference-claim

Not a bad display of geography knowledge, President Trump, although if you were really looking for election meddling and were mentally capable of taking heed of your own intelligence services you might be looking north of the Sino-Russian border ....

Chinatown hits back

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/24/chinatown-businesses-london-shut-protest-home-office-immigration-raids

Absolutely and completely fucking warranted.

If the Home Office insist on creating a 'hostile environment' for those who come to live and work in this country (or even associate with friends and colleagues who do) then they should expect the occasional reminder that our culture and economy are built on immigration.

Even if one consents to heavy handed bullying of immigrants what sort of message does this send out to those vital non-EU countries that we are meant to be striving for trade deals with?

Around the World in 108 Days....

As usual I'm late to the party in finally getting around to playing this 2014 gem.

A slightly cyberpunk twist on the familiar story sees you play as Passepartout in an effort to circumnavigate the globe in 80 days or less. After aborting an initial Russia route I have just completed my first game. From the title of the post you can probably guess that Fogg lost his wager this time round.

The main delays in my journey were an arrest in Vladivostok, a sad lack of funds that left Passepartout and Fogg sleeping rough for two nights in Hong Kong and two diversions when ships/aircraft decided to head off in the wrong direction (I eventually countered the first by masterminding a mutiny among the sailors).

High points were escaping from the Sultan's haram dressed as a dancing girl, meeting James Montgomery in his countervailing journey around the world and breezing up the African coast flush with trade cash while being informed about the activities of the anti-slaver West Africa Squadron of the Royal Navy.

In short this is a masterpiece. I suspect I bypassed at least half of the available cities and left mysteries behind in a number that I did visit (what the hell were all those opticians and gun-makers in Dubrovnik on about?). The tone is pitch perfect throughout allowing you to develop a real character for Passepartout and enjoy the ride even if victory seems unlikely.

The Economist vs the socialists

Having picked up this week's Economist I have made an amazing discovery. A disinterested observer might be tempted to think that oil-producing countries are nearly certain to struggle during an oil glut especially following OPEC's decision to not curtail production.

This is evident in the cases of Russia, Venezuala, Brazil and even Nigeria. America should be treated as something of a special case. The shale gas producers are certainly being squeezed be low oil prices but the size of the US economy and its central position in world investment means that the boost to economic endeavour given by the low prices helps to offset damage to the exporting energy industry.

However, if you read the Economist it becomes clear that these failings are due to the number one suspect. Venezuala is suffering for decades of, unfathomably, attempting to fund social progress with oil profits rather than stakeholder dividends. Brazil could have avoided this crisis entirely if it had nipped corruption and state control in the bud with a healthy dose of market forces.

I'm not saying that this is entirely a fabrication. The corruption in Brazil's Petrobras company is abominable (although it wouldn't look out of place in the modern state capitalist China). What seems unfair is the special pleading that the same journalists would apply in analogous cases for devout capitalists. The Coalition are heaped with praise for staying the course with austerity even though it is clear that low oil prices (over which they had little control) are responsible for much of the recent upturn in economic growth.

Tensions in the Pacific

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957

See China, this is the problem with drawing lines in the sand. Everyone else involved will just cross them to show that they can. A diplomatic solution is always the best option in these circumstances.

Perceptions of African ivory poaching

So I've seen a couple of newspaper articles recently arguing that poaching is on the rise in Africa with a disastrous impact on conservation efforts. Only a couple of months ago there was the case in Zimbabwe where elephants were targeted with poisoned watering holes and now Kenya are proposing to introduce micro-chipping to safeguard rhino's horns.

Hopefully this initiative will be successful and will help stop selfish individuals and businesses from slaughtering the beasts that benefit African economies far more effectively when preserved and kept in national parks.
 
I do find it a bit myopic though that every article about this trend focusses on the use of ivory in Chinese traditional medicine as the cause of poaching. Of course it is true that this is a cause of poaching and should not be allowed to threaten the existence of endangered species. However we don't feel a similar need to discuss the big game hunting Victorians or the chaos sparked by bungled decolonisation in every article about ivory poaching. A superficial analysis of poaching as the fault of the Chinese ignores the historical factors that have caused environmental catastrophes across Africa and the globe and leads to a misleading 'not our problem' attitude towards these issues in the West.

American hypocrisy in action

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23053915

The Chinese raise a good point here.

How can the USA complain about Russia's or Hong Kong's disinclination to extradite Snowden (bearing in mind that no extradition treaty exists between Russia and America) when it has just been revealed that they have been running a secret program designed exclusively to spy on the internet activity of foreign nationals?

As with Bradley Manning there has been no suggestion that whistle blowing was inspired by any foreign intervention. Those involved simply did not share the government's steadfast belief that it is acceptable for the state to breach privacy and keep vast amounts of data confidential in order to better protect the American people from those nebulously defined terrorists.

Maybe America should take a break from its rabid pursuit of those who challenge the interests of its surveillance state and instead consider what effect such revelations are having on its already tarnished global image.

Sudan through Chinese eyes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19656106

So apparently the BBC are now going to Chinese state television for their sources on Sudan business developments. I'm not sure whether to be worried or impressed that they are trusting enough to eavesdrop on authoritarian regimes for accurate information.

Taiwan: Between the US and China

Disengaging From Taiwan – Should Washington Continue Its Alliance With Taipei?

Foreign Affairs, Vol 90, no 4.

In 'Misreading China's Intentions', Shyu-Tu Lee (President of the North America Taiwanese Professor's Association - just in case you were expecting neutrality) argues against Charles Glaser who has called for a drawing back of the US commitment to and arms trade with Taiwan.

Lee's arguments has a lot of holes to say the least. It is claimed that the rise of China poses grave challenges to US security. Among other things China keeps its currency low to promote exports and this has the consequence of creating a large trade deficit for the US. It may just be me but this isn't actually China's fault. While America can complain about China's manipulation of currency value it is not being forced to buy Chinese goods and is within its rights to stop or raise tariffs if it doesn't like the terms. At a time when America is relying on Chinese credit to help support its ailing economy it seems provocative to say the least to call Chinese economic development a risk to American security.

Lee also threatens that Glaser's policy could increase the chance of a nuclear attack on the American homeland. Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't this be incredibly counter-productive since a) America has a far bigger nuclear stockpile with which to retaliate and b) China is benefiting from the aforementioned trade deficit. Nuking your debtors does not make good business sense.

Finally Lee claims that once in control of Taiwan the Chinese would quickly turn South Korea and Japan into vassal states forcing a US retreat to Hawaii. Are people really still relying on the domino theory to make their points? Sheesh.

Of course I'm not saying that Taiwan should be left to fend for itself. No country should be allowed to engage in aggression against a sovereign rival based on 70 year old territorial claims. However, this article is frankly a piece of alarmist scaremongering that if credited would guarantee a rise in tensions between China and the USA.

First golds for Team GB

Glad to see some golds for GB today. I've not really been following it, despite having a generally unproductive day of trying to work on my dissertation. However, I did see the men's rowing final. That was a really good race - I was jumping up and down when Britain pulled ahead of Germany but it wasn't meant to be. Still it could have been worse, we got the bronze and a lot of boats were catching up with us by the end.

I hope this means we can forget about the 'Chinese swimmer doping' story now. If that had happened to a British athlete we would have been tearing up the carpet and foaming at the mouth. People do beat their personal bests and there wasn't a shred of evidence that anything untoward had gone on. The Chinese athletes are under just as strict a testing regime as anyone else and they are putting on one hell of a show so far.

Still, what can you expect when you have that many news-hungry Journalists cooped up in one city. I'm just glad they're still finding time to cover Syria and haven't sidelined foreign news entirely.

To lash or not to lash .....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15102190

The latest news in the recent Saudi Arabian 'gender liberalisation' is that the courts might refrain from lashing a woman for driving a car. What an admirable level of restraint! The article also optimistically quotes correspondants and journalists who argue that there is a general thaw regarding women drivers - with many not being penalized even if caught.

Whether or not this the story about the revoked lashing is true - it was 'tweeted' by a Saudi princess who one might expect to have certain vested interests - the BBC seem to be pursuing a very strange line of reporting in regard to Saudi Arabia recently.

I expect some favouritism for allies of the West in the blatantly neo-lib/right wing Economist. They recently splashed a poorly substantiated article about possible Chinese arms deals with Gadaffi's regime, while quickly dropping the distasteful topic of Saudi and Bahraini attacks on democratic demonstrators. However, the BBC is usually more neutral and subtle in its editorial stance.

Yet in this short article they somehow refrain from pointing out that some might consider it completely unacceptable for a twenty first century nation to legally forbid 50% of the population from driving or acting in their own right. Of course it is good if King Abdullah is genuinely pushing through long overdue reform but this doesn't mean that we shouldn't note the lengths that Saudi society still has to go to achieve anything like gender parity.