Beginning of the end for Gadaffi .....?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14611549

After the news of rebel advances in the West of Libya over the weekend it seems that they have launched a successful lightning raid on Tripoli. Reports are still patchy (although endearingly the article contains a reporter's-eye-view from their government-controlled hotel in Tripoli. A triumph for back-line journalism!). The rebels claim to to have taken 15-20% of the city and captured one of Gadaffi's sons which is difficult to confirm or deny. It is more certain that foreign journalists have heard firing in the city and that another of his son's compounds was attacked. The government have signalled willingness to negotiate with the Transitional Council.

Potentially this could be another false alarm. The BBC seem surprised by the speedy advance having recently reported the high level of support for Gadaffi inside the capitol and the presence of large numbers of soldiers. However, if it is true and the rebels take Tripoli or force Gadaffi into negotiations it is almost certain that Libya will go the way of democratising Tunisia and Egypt.

This is great news. After the initial successes of the 'Arab Spring' the situation seemed to have bogged down in the intransigence of entrenched dictators. Powerful conservative forces such as Saudi Arabia remain in the area and seemed set to consolidate their anti-democracy influence. Even Israel has proved ambivalent on the risings as it fears a break down of recent detente with Egypt when faced with a new, popular government. In short, I feared that the uprisings would slowly peter out despite the NATO intervention in Libya.

However a victory over Gadaffi, that hoary dinosaur of the African Middle East, could revitalise resistance to dictatorship. With the fall of the Libyan government, Bashar Al-Assid will look increasingly isolated in his violent response to demonstrations. Russia might even stop capitalizing on Western intervention with pro-tyranny propaganda as one of the reasons for their interest in the area collapses. Further impetus would be given to the remaining elites of Egypt and Tunisia in bringing about speedy and meaningful political reform.

So congratulations to the Libyan rebels. Hopefully this will be a triumph of international intervention in countries with violent and repressive governments. The disasters in Somalia, Rwanda and Yugoslavia have reinforced a deep seated pessimism about the effectiveness of UN-backed, international intervention. The stolid and worksmanlike, if not universally popular, success in Libya could help to exorcise these ever-recurring demons.

P.s. Cameron has cancelled his holidays (again!) to handle the Libyan fallout. Poor guy deserves a break.

Edit - ... and it has been confirmed that both of Gadaffi's aforementioned sons have been captured by rebels. The dictator himself has not been located, however.

Edit, Edit - Or maybe the rebels were making some of that up about capturing his sons. Face saving excuse = they must have got away.